Author(s): Vijaya S Shinde and NV Shende

Abstract: Agricultural growth with stability has been a matter of concern in West Bengal. As paddy is the major crop growing in the state, the present study was therefore carried out with the objectives to examine the changes in cost and prices, growth, trend, parity between cost and prices, gap between FHP (Farm Harvest Prices) and MSP (Minimum Support Prices), impact of MSP on area, production and productivity of Paddy in West Bengal. The data of cost and prices of Paddy were collected form the period 2000-01 to 2019-20 and analysed the temporal change, growth by using CGR (Compound Growth Rate), instability by using CV (Coefficient of Variation), trends by using linear and non-linear trend model, index number, effectiveness of the price policy during the harvest periods was examined by the deviations of FHP from MSP and classified into positive and negative deviations. These deviations calculated by using MAPD, MAND, AMPD and AMND formulas. To study the impact of lagged Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) on the acreage allocation, production and productivity, linear Regression equations have been fitted. The result shows that the temporal change of cost of Paddy crop increased subsequently over the period of time. This increase could due to increase in level of input use for Paddy is increases in West Bengal. The growth analysis revealed that the growth in various cost of Paddy are found positively significant at 5 per cent level for overall period. For FHP and MSP of Paddy crop are found positively significant at 5 per cent level for overall period. The Coefficient of variation for various cost and prices was found to be high in the Period-I and low in the Period-II, on the whole, it was observed that the degree of stability is increasing for over the period. There was an increase in trend in cost and prices of Paddy crop during overall period and among the competitive parametric models third degree model are found best fitted based on R² significance. The gap analysis in which deviations of FHPs from MSPs of Paddy results in maximum positive deviations (FHP ruled higher than MSP) in West Bengal. The result shows that previous year price influences current years’ area, production and productivity of West Bengal.

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