Author(s): Richa Dhurandher, B Devi Priyanka, AK Singh, ML Lakhera, AK Gauraha and Deepak Sharma

Abstract: This study focused on estimating yield and production of paddy and maize crops of Bastar district of Chhattisgarh State. Since paddy and maize are the most important cereals among others in Bastar, these crops are selected for the study. 10 years data during the period of 2010-11 to 2019-20 are collected for the variables area, yield, production, proportionate gross irrigated area, proportionate total npk consumption, rainfall, relative humidity, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. ARIMA (p, d, q) parameters for the residuals of their linear model are calculated. From the ARIMA (p, d, q) parameters, it is understood that there is no auto-correlation for the data in paddy crop, while auto-correlation is observed in the data for the variables of maize crop. As a result, for the paddy crop, linear regression model was finalized whereas for the maize crop, generalized least square modelling was fitted. Then forecasting for the yield upto 2025 was done for the three selected crops of Bastar.

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